Many articles have been written and much has been uttered as
to the remote and immediate causes of the failure of ex-president Goodluck Jonathan
in the 2015 presidential election. Political and social analysts, both on radio
and television have also offered reasons for the failure. The masses through
the uncontrolled social media also expressed their minds on the loss too. Many
of the above attributed the loss of the election by ex-president Jonathan to
corruption, insecurity and lack of performance in terms of infrastructures. Some
of the reasons given by these analysts concurred with mine while a few are at
variance with mine.
I have no grudge against them for they have the right and
are entitled to their opinion. Having read articles and listened to Nigerians spoken
on this issue, I felt it was unnecessary to dissipate energy to write on same
issue. But on a second thought, I reasoned that if I don’t give my account as
to why Mr. Jonathan lost the election such reasons would remain with me forever
and that wouldn’t add to scholarship hence I have chosen to add my article to
the volumes that have been written on this matter.
Contrary to the reasons attributed above, former president Jonathan
actually lost his re-election bid for the reasons mentioned below. Allowing the
registration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was the greatest blunder
ever committed by a sitting president. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo
wouldn’t have allowed the registration of a mega political party like the APC that
would have given him stiff opposition. No mega party was allowed during his
tenure rather he permitted the registration of small political parties which
were mere regional political parties. No regional political party can ever win
a presidential election in the country. Thus, the merging of the Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Congress for
Progressive Change (CPC) and a fraction of the All Progressive Grand Alliance
(APGA), was the beginning of the fall of Jonathan and the PDP. The absence of a
rigid opposition political party gave Obasanjo victory in his second term bid
in 2003 and not because he performed in his first term in office.
Mr. Jonathan had a
stiff opposition from the north even before he was elected in 2011. Thus, he
didn’t enjoy total support from the north even though that region benefitted
more from his government in terms of infrastructural development and political
appointments. Another undoing of the Jonathan’s administration was the
activities of the Boko Haram insurgents leading to the shedding of innocent
blood and the abduction of the Chibok school girls. All these beclouded all the
good works he did. The activities of the Boko Haram sect portrayed the former
president as an incompetent leader which is not true because insurgency all
over the world is not an easy task to overcome. America with all her power couldn’t
crush the Taliban in Afghanistan. Also, America couldn’t bring to an end the
war she began in Iraq. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria has not been able to contain
the uprising in his country for about five years now. All these are testimonies
to the fact that insurgency is not a tea party.
The implosion in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that led to
the defection of five governors and 40 members of the House of Representatives
and subsequent massive defections from the party to the APC caused a colossal
damage to Mr. Jonathan’s re-election bid. The implosion precipitated by the
demand by the governors to remove the then chairman of the PDP, Alhaji Bamaga
Turku which was turned down by Jonathan was another reason for his failure. The
election of the governors’ forum which led to two factions led by ex-governors
Jonah Jang and Rotimi Amaechi also contributed to the failure of Mr. Jonathan
during the elections.
Again, former President Jonathan is not a shrewd politician.
He is not power drunk like some politicians that want power at all cost. Ab
initio, he made his stand obvious by saying “Nobody’s ambition is worth the
blood of any Nigerian”. This he fulfilled by conducting the elections devoid of
violence and bloodletting. His concession of defeat before the final result was
announced was the magic wand he employed; this he did for his love and unity of
the country. To him, the unity of the country is paramount above his political
ambition. His loss in the election could also be attributed to his weak media
team. His media team was not proactive but reactive to the alarm propagandist
media team of the APC. His media team was in slumber but only woke up just
before the general elections.
The Anti-Gay Bill which he signed into law irked the American
Government against him hence they worked against him covertly before and during
the elections. Under age voters who voted in the north against him was a
contributory factor to his fall in the elections. The availability of the social
media such as facebook, twitter, email and short message service also led to
his loss in the elections. The availability of these platforms enable Nigerians
to speak their minds on national issue. With these platforms, Nigerians kept
shouting about corruption as if corruption began and would end with the
administration of ex-president Jonathan.
Former President Jonathan lost his second term bid because of
political naivety. The registration of the APC was the beginning of the
downfall of Jonathan and the PDP and not because of lack of performance. Chief
Olusegun Obasanjo was re-elected in 2003 not because of performance but because
there was no stiff opposition political party. Former President Jonathan should
however be commended for deepening democracy in the country.
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